A betting strategy is a system for managing the pot when placing bets. By sticking to the system, the player controls the spending of money and increases the probability of winning. We’ll tell you how the main sports betting strategies work.
Martingale
This is a strategy where the player increases the stake every time they lose until they win. The player bets on an event with odds of 2.00 or higher. If he loses, he doubles his bet and places another bet on an event with odds of no less than 2.00. If the player wins, any winnings from the second bet will cover coUnibet and make a profit. If he loses, the player doubles the amount again – and so on until the bet fails. The number of iterations of this strategy can be up to 20-30. When the bet is lost, the player returns to the original amount and repeats the strategy.
The potential winnings should cover all previous losses and make the player in the positive. At odds of 2.00, the minimum net return will be the value of the first bet.
We bet 1000 USD on the Germans winning at odds of 2.07. The bet fails, so we bet 2000 USD on the Serbs winning at odds of 2.60. The bet fails again. The third iteration is 4000 USD on a Sacramento win at odds of 2.50. The bet goes through, we win 10,000 USD. Our net profit is 3000 USD (10 000 – 1000 – 2000 – 4000 = 3000).
Disadvantages
Martingale is not a winning strategy. It seems that it always brings profits, because sooner or later the event the player bets on will happen and the bet will be realized. However, all betting companies limit the maximum bet size. Therefore, martingale sometimes leads to big losses – the player hits the ceiling of the maximum amount, so he cannot continue the strategy.
Flat
A strategy where the player bets a fixed percentage of the pot. It prevents losses and protects against impulsive betting in case of several consecutive losses. The idea is not to go over the bank.
We have USD 100,000 in our account. We do not know much about betting yet, so we bet 1% of the bank – 1,000 on an event with odds of 2.00. The bet succeeds and we have 101,000 USD in our account. With the next bet we bet 1% of the pot, this time USD 1,010.
Disadvantages
No betting. A player cannot bet half the pot to recover losses after a failed series. For this reason it is possible to remain in deficit for a long time.
Bookmaking forks
A strategy in which a player bets on all the results of a match at different bookmaking companies. Since bookmakers price the teams’ odds differently, the player can find a combination of odds that guarantees a profit.
How to look for forks
It is necessary to monitor the odds at several bookmakers. If you see high odds on opposite results, check for forks. Divide 1 by each of the odds and add up the result:
- (1 ÷ K1) + (1 ÷ K2), where
K1 is the chance of one outcome and K2 is the chance of the other outcome. If the resulting total is less than 1, points are lost. If there is a tie in a sport, a third factor must be added to the formula.
Watch the match “Norwich” vs “Sunderland”. One bank gives odds of 2.90 for a Norwich win, another 3.40 for a draw and a third 3.10 for a Sunderland win.
Calculating the spreads:
- (1 ÷ 2,90) + (1 ÷ 3,40) + (1 ÷ 3,10) = 0,96
0.96 is less than 1, so we are dealing with a fork.
How to calculate the betting amount
Using the formula:
- 1 ÷ K × N, where
K is the quotation factor, N is the desired winning amount in the fork.
Again, let’s look at the Norwich vs Sunderland match. We want to win 1000 rubles. The odds for a Norwich win are 2.90, for a draw – 3.40, for a Sunderland win – 3.10:
- 1 ÷ 2,90 × 1000 = 344;
- 1 ÷ 3,40 × 1000 = 294;
- 1 ÷ 3,10 × 1000 = 322.
We bet a total of 960 USD. The potential winnings in the first bet is 997 USD, in the second bet 999 USD and in the third bet 998 USD. Regardless of how the match ends, we remain in the black.
Disadvantages
Bookmaking companies don’t like fornas – players who bet only on forks. Bookmakers believe that forkers bet on an unfair win-win strategy, so they apply sanctions against them – they lower the maximum bet size.
A bookmaker’s forking strategy is highly dependent on the size of the bet. Usually the difference in odds is small, so the net profit from each spread rarely reaches 5% of the bet value. This is why you need to bet large amounts of money.
Betting on the favourite
A strategy in which a player waits until the odds on the favourite have risen to place a bet on the game. The idea is to wait until the favourite makes a mistake, such as scoring a goal. In this case, the bookmaker will adjust the odds for the result – increasing the odds for the favourite to win and decreasing the odds for the opponent to win.
Before the match between Manchester City and Bournemouth, the odds for City to win were estimated at 1.20. City scored a goal in the middle of the match and the odds for them to win increase to 1.70. We are sure that City will win anyway, so we bet USD 1000. In the end, Manchester City wins and we win by 1700 USD. If we had bet before the match, we would have won only 1200 USD.
Disadvantages
You can misjudge an event – bet on the favourite to win and lose. Therefore, this is not the best betting strategy for beginners. In addition, the profit from this system will not be large – the odds for a clear favourite will not rise above 2.00.
Betting on the exact outcome
A strategy that involves determining the most likely outcome of a match and backing it up with several bets. If one of them plays, the win will cover the coUnibet and make a profit.
“Newcastle are the underdog in the match against Leicester. However, we know that Newcastle rarely score and are more likely to lose 1-2. The bookmaker’s odds for this result are 4.00. We bet $1,000 and just in case, we bet another $1,000 on a result of 0-2 at 4.50 and 1-1 at 3.50. As a result, Newcastle lost 0-2. We spent $3,000 and got $4,500. The net profit was $1,500.
Disadvantages
To win with this strategy, you need to understand sports: know the state of the teams, be able to evaluate statistics and the influence of non-sports factors. In addition, there are always unknown factors, such as the emotional mood of the players, internal relations in the team, the influence of the referee and the weather.